A community can need housing without making every project viable

Start by defining the need

A planning document may identify how many homes a community should accommodate over decades. That is valuable context. It does not tell us how many households will lease a particular apartment next summer, or buy a particular townhome at a chosen price.

Burlington’s May 2026 draft housing analysis allocates 2,843 additional homes through 2045 across income bands. Of these, 1,903 are at or below 80% of area median income, about 67% by arithmetic. Treating the full allocation as demand for unrestricted new rentals would miss the people and budgets the plan describes.

Evidence: [1]

Define the customer before selecting the benchmark

A citywide median income combines different households and tenures. Existing-stock gross rent is a different measure from an advertised new apartment rent. A county house price may combine waterfront homes, rural acreage and smaller town-center units.

We think a better question is concrete: which households would choose this home, what alternatives do they have, and what would their total housing cost be? For renters that includes fees and utilities; for buyers it includes financing, insurance, taxes, any association charges and maintenance. A lower price than another city is not enough to answer that question.

Supply and product can change the result

Two projects in the same market can have different demand because their layouts, parking, outdoor space, amenities and recurring costs differ. A larger home may appeal to a family without earning a proportionate rent increase. Selected advertised comparables can frame a range, but signed leases and actual buyer behavior provide different evidence.

Supply also needs a delivery date and a customer segment. A proposed development is not a completed competitor. A delivered property should not be counted again as future supply. Restricted affordable homes and unrestricted apartments may serve different residents, while still affecting the range of local choices.

Bring the market case back to the site

A desirable location can still be uneconomic to develop. Land basis, approved density, infrastructure, construction, financing and the supported income all need to fit. Cheap land can become expensive housing if access, grading or utilities consume the apparent saving.

Our public market research starts this process for Burlington, the Manor Way corridor and Friday Harbor. It records sources and gaps rather than assigning a city score. The decision becomes stronger when we can state both why the location is attractive and what evidence would cause us to change the plan.